South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4ead5030c89b7623a48837b5d752ca212454307a1bfe30cb105f2ba808a7860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,991$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.31 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 33c | 1,515$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 1,038$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.24 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 460.07$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.12 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 459.39$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.6 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 33c | 299.6$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 52c | 248.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.13 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 31c | 246.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 224.96$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.23 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 154.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 34c | 136.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 34c | 120.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 70c | 107.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…780bbacked Over | 33c | 98.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 60c | 95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 37c | 87.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Over | 43c | 87.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 54c | 86.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Under | 52c | 57.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Under | 65c | 36.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 73c | 34.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 57c | 31.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.