South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5691ae0ed472bf6126150f78e97882920b3a517b8cefbd8029784cd19e725c0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 56c | 15,000$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,599.86 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 55c | 10,785$5,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,853.14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd51…1041backed Over | 45c | 10,620$4,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,779 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 56c | 8,000$4,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,519.94 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 44c | 6,557$2,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,885.06 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Under | 56c | 5,986$3,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,662.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4244…03a6backed Over | 44c | 5,136$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,260 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 44c | 4,884$2,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.39 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 2,912$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.01 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,645$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.49 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 1,379$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 44c | 1,294$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.51 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Over | 45c | 487.74$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef2…fdb6backed Over | 44c | 444$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 45c | 384$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 371.59$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.3 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 44c | 347$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 332.02$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.65 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 25c | 304.95$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 28c | 299.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.18 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 44c | 257.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 44c | 231$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 44c | 199$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.56 | 307 | 54.7%168 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 15c | 151.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 44c | 119$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Under | 56c | 114$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Over | 45c | 108.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 43c | 108.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 80c | 103.38$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 41c | 102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 65c | 99.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 17c | 96.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Over | 45c | 88.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 27c | 85.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 45c | 76.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbea…7777backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 65.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 45c | 57.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Over | 44c | 53.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 74c | 53.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…dcb7backed Under | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 55c | 50.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 75c | 50.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Over | 45c | 47.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a56…563cbacked Under | 65c | 46.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 75c | 37.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a67…6ddebacked Over | 41c | 36.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 45c | 31.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 75c | 30.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 341 | 55.1%188 W · 153 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e62…8124backed Over | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Under | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Over | 44c | 25.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…87e2backed Under | 56c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Paranaense vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.