Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54d85907d5063e387201c4c935acda812a769b03077186bffacb2004aeb9b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Satan666of Satan666, Cloud Dawning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8681…ef99backed Satan666 | 40c | 1,505$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.22 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Cloud Dawning | 60c | 1,194$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.38 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Satan666 | 66c | 1,076$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.81 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Cloud Dawning | 24c | 791.01$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.96 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Cloud Dawning | 40c | 453.36$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.67 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Cloud Dawning | 24c | 348.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…720fbacked Satan666 | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Cloud Dawning | 28c | 299.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Satan666 | 69c | 248.62$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Cloud Dawning | 60c | 244.42$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.65 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Cloud Dawning | 48c | 238.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.8 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeed6…ec56backed Satan666 | 77c | 208.38$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x678c…1debbacked Cloud Dawning | 59c | 166.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…99aebacked Cloud Dawning | 32c | 158.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…00aabacked Satan666 | 40c | 153.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Satan666 | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b1…b851backed Satan666 | 55c | 118.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…a8e5backed Cloud Dawning | 22c | 113.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Cloud Dawning | 60c | 104.71$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3a…09aebacked Cloud Dawning | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Satan666 | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Satan666 | 71c | 98.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Cloud Dawning | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked Satan666 | 55c | 97.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…c533backed Satan666 | 74c | 86.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Cloud Dawning | 60c | 77.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Cloud Dawning | 70c | 74.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Satan666 | 66c | 74.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9fd8backed Cloud Dawning | 44c | 68.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Satan666 | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…2c42backed Satan666 | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…9a83backed Cloud Dawning | 22c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175f…dd2bbacked Satan666 | 80c | 49.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Satan666 | 73c | 48.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Satan666 | 58c | 46.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Satan666 | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Satan666 | 74c | 42.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Satan666 | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Satan666 | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Satan666 | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Satan666 | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Satan666 | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Cloud Dawning | 32c | 38.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Satan666 | 49c | 28.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…522fbacked Satan666 | 41c | 28.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Satan666 | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…d68dbacked Satan666 | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…01f5backed Satan666 | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Satan666 | 71c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +15.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…4cc3backed Satan666 | 62c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Satan666 | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Cloud Dawning - Game 2 WinnerSatan666 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.