Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Emma Navarro vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc58a89d33195dee8192c12875f8cc0cd65a324b7160479b7921f4474213d4925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pegulaof Navarro, Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98b1…d855backed Navarro | 38c | 9,339$3,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,522.78 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Navarro | 29c | 7,253$2,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.42 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Pegula | 67c | 5,500$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.99 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Pegula | 59c | 5,233$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.5 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pegula | 72c | 3,651$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.2 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Pegula | 58c | 2,711$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.28 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Navarro | 40c | 1,749$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.91 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Navarro | 18c | 1,481$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.81 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Pegula | 64c | 1,230$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.8 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Navarro | 4c | 1,035$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Pegula | 62c | 998.51$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.43 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Navarro | 32c | 771.82$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.7 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Navarro | 34c | 500.27$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Navarro | 61c | 441.62$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.39 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Navarro | 41c | 336.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.13 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Navarro | 15c | 309.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Pegula | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Navarro | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Navarro | 34c | 296.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Navarro | 30c | 238.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.73 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Navarro | 6c | 225.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Navarro | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…a24dbacked Pegula | 68c | 181.82$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa91…eac3backed Navarro | 35c | 162.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Pegula | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Pegula | 75c | 119.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Navarro | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Pegula | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Navarro | 29c | 94.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc269…927dbacked Navarro | 31c | 80.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pegula | 43c | 79.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Navarro | 35c | 77.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…35dcbacked Pegula | 67c | 66.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6e…6040backed Navarro | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Navarro | 27c | 52.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Navarro | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Pegula | 75c | 46.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Navarro | 36c | 43.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Pegula | 74c | 41.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pegula | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Pegula | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…a255backed Pegula | 68c | 16.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Pegula | 65c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.