Music · resolved market
Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc58f72c84c7f81d4c16e59ee875da519a9a20836231be424d835fb9c2d0161e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 22c | 2,014$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 12c | 1,967$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,409$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked No | 24c | 942.9$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 78c | 835.78$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7628…3371backed No | 5c | 367.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 76c | 318.78$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…ac75backed No | 13c | 233.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…1c78backed Yes | 79c | 126.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Yes | 79c | 125.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…d8d0backed No | 28c | 114.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d9…ab03backed No | 28c | 113.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 18c | 81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 27c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 71.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…c6bfbacked No | 20c | 52.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…3b3dbacked No | 56c | 44.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…8851backed Yes | 76c | 36.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 75c | 27.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +74%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac4…dbc4backed Yes | 74c | 27.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dd…192abacked Yes | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…9a24backed Yes | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…1ad9backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…85ebbacked Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Fate of Ophelia by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?this page
- Will Opalite by Taylor Swift be the #1 song on Spotify this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.