Movies · resolved market
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5af22e14ce2066a288ef5bc6c2a782bd7a4ec5b410a87b3aea02fd3dc8cfe48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 22c | 4,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 28c | 2,428$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.54 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,000$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.77 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 977.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 599.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…246abacked Yes | 6c | 444$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…5455backed Yes | 4c | 440.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 4c | 392.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 11c | 263$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 181.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 62c | 175$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 35c | 168.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 72c | 144.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 17c | 140.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 136$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33ba…5b15backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 44.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Opus' gross between 5-7m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Opus' gross less than 3m on opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.