Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b5fe0ff9fafbaab672f429671a952e9b1678f9089e8d6baf936d5a05658142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 9c | 792.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 638.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.32 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 580.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 6c | 556$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 28c | 455$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 3c | 386.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 65c | 299.97$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.49 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 295$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 289.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 13c | 279.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 18c | 211.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 41c | 197.55$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…05a3backed Yes | 12c | 176$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 45c | 129.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 122.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 115.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 47c | 103.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 13c | 98.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 77c | 64.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 54c | 62.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 60.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 19c | 58.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 62c | 46.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 43c | 41.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 38.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 32.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 30.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 29.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 26.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 48c | 23.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…5bb8backed Yes | 61c | 21.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.