Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb2b120fd595120f7e4163a57bb7878ca65d159ee0441d2e2b33ab822440a11a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 29c | 1,459$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.76 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 67c | 1,053$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 53c | 718$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.99 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 32c | 517.04$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.19 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 44c | 469.8$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.77 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 439.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 375.78$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 44c | 364$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.35 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 68c | 339.65$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.51 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…8deabacked No | 71c | 338.14$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 337.27$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 268.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 11c | 225.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 49c | 212.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 197.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 46c | 179.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 175.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 166.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 34c | 133.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 133.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 126$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 46c | 122.03$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 118.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 9c | 115.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 60c | 115$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 34c | 106.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…b129backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…d03cbacked Yes | 39c | 96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 17c | 95.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 25c | 87.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 82.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…b42abacked Yes | 33c | 75.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 44c | 63.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 28c | 53.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 53.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 74c | 40.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 45c | 40.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…05a3backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 65c | 38.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 33c | 38.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 56c | 37.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 36.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…7439backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 35.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 32.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 70c | 29.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 72c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 55c | 27.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 55c | 26.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 54c | 23.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 58c | 19.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 18.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.