Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97c7cebb135e306a5123fa68d909d0d33a03dc077b58d8104e7421115e3b362c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 31c | 1,296$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.91 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 508.74$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.74 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 393$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.11 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 59c | 362.25$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 338.36$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.63 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 299.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 61c | 239.35$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 64c | 227.55$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.96 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 80c | 222.83$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 195.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 54c | 184.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 58c | 169.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 55c | 169.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.58 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 65c | 157.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 126.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 125.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 124.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 61c | 122.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 118.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…b42abacked Yes | 40c | 117.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 72c | 114$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 98.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 41c | 93.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 39c | 90.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 41c | 90.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 16c | 88.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 58c | 84.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 58c | 84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed Yes | 34c | 83.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked No | 58c | 82.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…05a3backed Yes | 42c | 71.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 44c | 65.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 64.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 63.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 60.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 63c | 58.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 56.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 36c | 55.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 37c | 54.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 35c | 54.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 65c | 52.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 30c | 48.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 43c | 46.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked No | 67c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 45c | 44.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 55c | 43.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 41c | 43.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 43c | 39.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 51c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 49c | 38.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…5bb8backed Yes | 51c | 38.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 37.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 51c | 37.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 44c | 36.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 41c | 36.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 32c | 35.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 41c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 36c | 34.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 32.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 46c | 32.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed Yes | 49c | 31.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 45c | 31.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…70b1backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 27.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 26.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 77c | 23.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 23.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 65c | 20.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 97°F or below on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.