Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5ecdb7233bddb5ff060f36799588b0e6f505fa8a6d8d5d68c153a63a1369a81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 24c | 129.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 20c | 90.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked No | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 23c | 85.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 17c | 74.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 21c | 72.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 62.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 29c | 60.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 70c | 55.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked No | 23c | 53.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 32c | 46.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 76c | 44.76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 24c | 41.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked No | 28c | 35.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 31.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed Yes | 74c | 28.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 65c | 24.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…c8bbbacked Yes | 68c | 14.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.