Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31c29d97ac2f85109582c8c5d34fdc264b5eca5ad0f88d256d23aefd23fb8233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 207.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 193.47$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 28c | 140.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 39c | 134.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 131.13$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Yes | 42c | 129.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 31c | 126.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 123.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 69c | 119.03$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 68c | 100.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 32c | 93.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked Yes | 36c | 93.46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 73c | 88.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 33c | 79.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed Yes | 70c | 78.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 69c | 75.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…145bbacked Yes | 41c | 72.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 71.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 59c | 70.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 41c | 63.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 73c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 64c | 55.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 30c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 54.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 32c | 52.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 59c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 51.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 60c | 50.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 41c | 47.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked No | 32c | 46.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 32c | 46.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…2541backed No | 59c | 46.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed No | 35c | 42.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 48c | 42.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 58c | 41.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 40c | 40.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed No | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked No | 35c | 34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…14ebbacked No | 37c | 33.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 40c | 31.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 34c | 30.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 28.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 63c | 23.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 66c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 66c | 22.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 63c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.