Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59b585d09149cde88433db3b4f5024dec2bcf85286a601b99f04399a234dfcf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 606.34$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 364.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 291.81$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 18c | 291.21$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.9 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 279.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 271.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 6c | 236.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 18c | 222.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.71 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 79c | 199.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.91 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 192.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 191.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.23 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 188.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 182.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 182.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 13c | 156.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 40c | 145.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 11c | 141.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 69c | 138.27$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 74c | 134.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 27c | 125.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 11c | 113.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 112.09$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 12c | 108.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 19c | 104.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed No | 11c | 92.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 13c | 92.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed No | 13c | 90.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 20c | 85.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 14c | 83.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 16c | 82.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 27c | 80.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 32c | 77.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 78c | 68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 52c | 67.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 22c | 65.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 25c | 62.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…0884backed Yes | 18c | 59.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 80c | 56.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…c9a9backed Yes | 35c | 56.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…64e4backed Yes | 20c | 54.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 29c | 52.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 39c | 49.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 40c | 44.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 78c | 43.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 65c | 42.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 43c | 38.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3231…07c2backed No | 79c | 29.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +443.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 47c | 29.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ae…0885backed No | 80c | 27.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 20.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 78c | 19.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 79c | 15.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.