Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaba9dfb7bf3f21443a493dc0d61be5a93d2b173f4785d2a01a2cee7b5ec31b5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 564.82$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 21c | 301.81$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked No | 25c | 234.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.47 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 74c | 209.42$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.68 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes | 45c | 198.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 34c | 196.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 21c | 190.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 74c | 159.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…0508backed Yes | 37c | 150.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 40c | 118.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 44c | 114.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 22c | 103.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 21c | 102.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 101.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 96.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 16c | 90.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 60c | 89.63$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 89.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed No | 25c | 89.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…145bbacked Yes | 47c | 85.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 64c | 78.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 67.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 64.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 76c | 64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 77c | 63.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 31c | 61.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed No | 28c | 54.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…e47bbacked No | 57c | 52.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 52.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 37c | 52.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 51.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 77c | 51.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5186…2515backed No | 26c | 49.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 22c | 49.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 47.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 43c | 46.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 44.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 77c | 44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 80c | 41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Yes | 78c | 37.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 70c | 36.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe805…e416backed No | 68c | 34.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 33.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked Yes | 75c | 33.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 33.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 31.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked Yes | 78c | 29.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 73c | 26.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes | 76c | 26.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 26.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 26.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 79c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9838…8469backed Yes | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 25.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 77c | 24.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 80c | 23.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 61c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 78c | 21.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 67c | 20.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 79c | 18.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed Yes | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 16.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 74c | 16.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 71c | 15.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 74c | 15.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 74c | 14.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.