Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5ff93dbe878f83d4bac4eab659576f9364f8c5963fe06afceb2a6e622e7cd1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 168.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 156.57$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 149.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 39c | 121.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 87.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 73.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 58c | 62.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 21c | 56.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 24c | 48.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 39c | 45.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 33c | 42.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…6663backed Yes | 42c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 35.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 33.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 39c | 31.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 38c | 26.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223b…6f2abacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 64c | 21.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 69c | 17.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C or higher on May 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.