CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6033ba5bc5a515e5134aa47367fefcd4614997a5e74065b4d37ed83613aec7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SPARTAof SPARTA, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic | 4c | 3,133$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed fnatic | 15c | 1,840$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.18 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SPARTA | 75c | 1,633$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.72 | 1,088 | 54.2%590 W · 498 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8668…7f8fbacked SPARTA | 55c | 630.21$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.21 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e55…be6fbacked fnatic | 14c | 573.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked fnatic | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…fcbdbacked fnatic | 38c | 440.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.54 | 354 | 49.7%176 W · 178 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked SPARTA | 75c | 405.79$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked fnatic | 20c | 281.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…5393backed fnatic | 13c | 240.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed SPARTA | 71c | 211.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 203 | 44.3%90 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked fnatic | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…aa6abacked fnatic | 16c | 194$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…8796backed SPARTA | 74c | 158.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 282 | 54.6%154 W · 128 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked fnatic | 32c | 129.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked fnatic | 37c | 120.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed fnatic | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked SPARTA | 58c | 119.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed SPARTA | 78c | 111.04$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked SPARTA | 79c | 97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…ca10backed fnatic | 43c | 93.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed fnatic | 45c | 91.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked SPARTA | 50c | 82.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed fnatic | 53c | 75.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed SPARTA | 47c | 60.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed SPARTA | 54c | 55.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 333 | 54.4%181 W · 152 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked fnatic | 49c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…9defbacked fnatic | 20c | 51.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed fnatic | 41c | 50.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…1068backed fnatic | 48c | 41.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 323 | 61.6%199 W · 124 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed fnatic | 52c | 40.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed fnatic | 46c | 39.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked SPARTA | 51c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 PlayoffsSPARTA won
- Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs fnatic - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.