Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6197a6cbd7bf4726ce12c4194d59d427314b29e2c883531c0ccb0aac49212f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 29c | 2,137$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 8c | 2,027$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 1,217$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.93 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 24c | 1,193$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.31 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 74c | 848.21$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.47 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 5c | 732.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 2,175 | 37.6%817 W · 1,358 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 27c | 530.89$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.34 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 31c | 387.35$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -11.8wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 28c | 341.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 11c | 340.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 27c | 303.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 23c | 299.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 272.55$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 27c | 178.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 27c | 177.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…65c8backed Over | 27c | 171.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 71c | 167.04$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 34c | 141.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 78c | 121.45$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 27c | 111.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 145 | 52.4%76 W · 69 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 27c | 111.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Over | 29c | 75.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Under | 72c | 68.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 78c | 66.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 78c | 66.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 78c | 66.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 78c | 66.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 78c | 66.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 78c | 66.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 27c | 57.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Under | 71c | 49.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed Under | 75c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 3.5this page
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 2.5Over won
- FK Shakhtar Donetsk vs. AZ: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-1.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
- Spread: FK Shakhtar Donetsk (-2.5)FK Shakhtar Donetsk won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.