South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc653e157f93038e1a443c30b3a3124ef663362531739c31c5e208f0bc8b759b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 952.9$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.2 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 667$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.78 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf49…e7f4backed No | 76c | 476.92$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 42c | 444.89$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.17 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Yes | 18c | 433.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 13c | 425$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 10c | 388$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Yes | 22c | 259.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed No | 13c | 229$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 8c | 189.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Yes | 31c | 182.81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 71c | 173.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 66c | 105.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 26c | 101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Yes | 32c | 100.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 78c | 92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed No | 79c | 87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 59c | 80.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 41c | 67.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 22c | 66.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 51.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 43.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +75%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 26c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 75cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Yes | 50c | 35.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +7.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 68c | 32.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99a…388ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d71…1ee3backed No | 70c | 28.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 20.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0798…80a7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 74c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol end in a draw?this page
- Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol win on 2026-02-05?No won
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-02-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.