Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Molcan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc692c1f8203bfd177002305fd9208c19a5de67297578bd893d5fe916f7f5964f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Molcanof Altmaier, Molcan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Altmaier | 17c | 2,578$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.62 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cb…b396backed Molcan | 58c | 1,596$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Molcan | 50c | 1,166$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.96 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Altmaier | 50c | 743.68$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.84 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Molcan | 64c | 621.88$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.81 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Altmaier | 67c | 617.56$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.72 | 208 | 44.2%92 W · 116 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Molcan | 74c | 397.86$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Altmaier | 56c | 385.48$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.71 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Altmaier | 43c | 327.27$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.56 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Molcan | 14c | 300$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +131.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Molcan | 17c | 266$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.34 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Molcan | 30c | 255$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Molcan | 59c | 231.09$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Altmaier | 52c | 223.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Molcan | 44c | 219.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.84 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Molcan | 78c | 186.9$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Molcan | 45c | 175.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c61…6b06backed Altmaier | 56c | 173.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Molcan | 20c | 173$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Altmaier | 41c | 172.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.27 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Altmaier | 64c | 152.95$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Molcan | 17c | 133$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Molcan | 17c | 133$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed Molcan | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Molcan | 75c | 120.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 2,118 | 55.9%1,185 W · 933 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…648dbacked Altmaier | 10c | 111.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Altmaier | 24c | 103.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Altmaier | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Molcan | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Altmaier | 50c | 70.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Altmaier | 59c | 55.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8724…c059backed Altmaier | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Molcan | 48c | 52.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Altmaier | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788f…8c1ebacked Altmaier | 65c | 39.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 184 | 60.3%111 W · 73 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Molcan | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…064ebacked Molcan | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | -16.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…a1c1backed Molcan | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 226 | 42%95 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Altmaier | 51c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…812bbacked Altmaier | 41c | 24.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…c965backed Molcan | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Molcan | 74c | 17.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Molcanthis page
- Altmaier vs. Molcan: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Altmaier vs. Molcan: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex MolcanAlex Molcan won
- Daniel Altmaier vs. Alex Molcan: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Altmaier (-1.5) vs Molcan (+1.5)Molcan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.