MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc69a91f77d53f3523c9c1cd7e454b423bfeed6d9f1f2b625f33c73b20437f1ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed New York Yankees | 61c | 20,000$12,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 14,904$5,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,812.56 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 3,780$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.75 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 3,720$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.22 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 3,034$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.26 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -9.8wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked New York Yankees | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 1,272$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.08 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked New York Yankees | 57c | 1,150$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.99 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked New York Yankees | 59c | 1,111$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.51 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed New York Yankees | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 759.09$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.03 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed New York Yankees | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 66c | 396.75$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.35 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 304$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…2569backed New York Yankees | 61c | 257.38$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Yankees | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Yankees | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed New York Yankees | 77c | 124$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed New York Yankees | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 754 | 53.2%401 W · 353 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed New York Yankees | 60c | 59.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed New York Yankees | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Yankees | 62c | 38.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked New York Yankees | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed New York Yankees | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed New York Yankees | 60c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.