Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc69b8970cb6710b9b4d688a5f9c38ee4f22e9347ebc72092959a99d43019100b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 79c | 220.96$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 193$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 149.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 47c | 117$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 96.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 92.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 60c | 86.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 64.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 27c | 60.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 58.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 41.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 40.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…35f2backed Yes | 29c | 35.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…03e8backed No | 74c | 35.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 33.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 52c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 23.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 22.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 16.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 16.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 74c | 16.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 75c | 13.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 79c | 13.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.