Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf63eee4ab47ce6dc11e955c3220a6e58d1e0c03bb504b9cef9a960fe8a28a62b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff52…688ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,044$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 35c | 176.63$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 63c | 175$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.75 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 171$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 168.13$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 46c | 166.25$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 62c | 158.73$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 112.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 64c | 101.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 92.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 52c | 85.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 56c | 83.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 45c | 82.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 81.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 79.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 48c | 75.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 74.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 55c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 28c | 66.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 44c | 66.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 65.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…9f83backed Yes | 48c | 62.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 43c | 59.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 54.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…dfbdbacked No | 54c | 49.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 51c | 49.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 39c | 43.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4095…24e2backed No | 55c | 42.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 76c | 39.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 51c | 38.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 41c | 38.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 37.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 61c | 36.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 34.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf28…65cfbacked Yes | 47c | 32.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 52c | 31.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb349…cd79backed No | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 78c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 78c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.