Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6b8a64833f5f3a94d3f2218bc2a0a794f28293bec861c3029c1d4d99271ec17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 1c | 1,197$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca8…25c0backed Yes | 2c | 791.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 8c | 501.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 365.13$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 332.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 299.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 38c | 245.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 223.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 195.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 165.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 156.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df9…9708backed No | 62c | 155.08$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 136.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 126.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 124.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 123.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 40c | 123.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 30c | 120.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…8468backed Yes | 35c | 117.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 30c | 101.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 61c | 100.68$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 60c | 89.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 62c | 81.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 79.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 45c | 66.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 44c | 58.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 35c | 56.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 62c | 53.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 43c | 51.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 32c | 51.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 59c | 50.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…32c1backed Yes | 38c | 49.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 37c | 44.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 68c | 41.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 40.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 40.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 39.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 42c | 39.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 39c | 36.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 46c | 35.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 43c | 34.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 58c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 34c | 33.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 57c | 32.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed No | 76c | 32.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 74c | 30.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked Yes | 33c | 30.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…89edbacked Yes | 38c | 29.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 29.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 67c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 69c | 28.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 53c | 26.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 68c | 26.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 58c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ee…53b4backed No | 70c | 25.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 44c | 24.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 23.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 22.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 65c | 21.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 67c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 57c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 61c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…f4aebacked No | 72c | 15.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…2db8backed No | 67c | 15.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.