Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a26e2a96a12d8a4d7cff729ca98d5de51560d054bfc572441dd695717d18cba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,601$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed Yes | 8c | 482.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 444.03$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 30c | 398.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 37c | 293.2$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 257.13$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 26c | 236.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 223.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…e558backed No | 76c | 192.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 174.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 156.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 141.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 38c | 138.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 75c | 130.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Yes | 8c | 125.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 21c | 121.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 99.97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 34c | 97.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 31c | 96.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 32c | 89.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 19c | 77.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 67c | 73.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 67.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 23c | 64.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…e5f5backed No | 76c | 62.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 68c | 62.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 27c | 61.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 59.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Yes | 18c | 56.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…0736backed No | 79c | 49.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 24c | 41.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 72c | 38.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 68c | 32.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 64c | 29.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 28.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 68c | 28.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 51c | 27.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 62c | 27.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed Yes | 40c | 27.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 67c | 26.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 63c | 25.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 62c | 22.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 67c | 21.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…5621backed No | 68c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 72c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 63c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.