TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,398
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,398 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes22c411.93$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.024,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No56c394.42$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.562,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes32c361.85$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.971,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c297.39$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes42c281.65$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.9521436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c240.8$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.497,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes32c196.67$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.264,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c194.47$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes26c183.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.348,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes47c178.45$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.581,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes25c154.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5939535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c151.17$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.159,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes24c150$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No79c136.83$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1842469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes50c128.5$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.256747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes23c127.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes24c111.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes68c107.9$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4689544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No52c103.78$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8320353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes62c88.22$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3416634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes31c87.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9213322.6%30 W · 103 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes24c85.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes35c77.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.165,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes35c74.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9928648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes32c72.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes24c72.07$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1221235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No44c66.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5131542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes22c63.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.933420.6%7 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9765…242ebacked Yes56c63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.123650%18 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c34…57f6backed Yes35c62.74$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.832425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe11d…44ecbacked No40c61.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9418041.7%75 W · 105 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes33c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.859142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No77c57.92$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.322,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No67c57.73$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0519152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes24c57.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.541,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb81c…d3cbbacked Yes35c54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa55a…0c43backed Yes23c53.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36827.9%19 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No71c50.93$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c49.9$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.162,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes33c49.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.396524.6%16 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-41.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x843d…89bcbacked Yes59c48.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.793661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes35c47.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6717838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No67c47.28$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.493850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes58c46.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8232352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85ca…c3e7backed Yes26c43.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.47119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6517…573fbacked No69c42.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24452.3%23 W · 21 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No74c42.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1753547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No60c42.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.031,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d75…9884backed Yes50c42.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+193.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c41.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes32c41.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.31,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes48c37.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1825549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No67c37.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes28c37.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2347442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed Yes29c37.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.786643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No80c36.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3523349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No46c34.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.014,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc8…2389backed Yes55c34.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1117156.7%97 W · 74 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No61c32.69$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8893734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x400f…917abacked No65c31.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.15580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No75c31.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8721676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No65c30.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6228954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…0053backed Yes63c28.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.341376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+40.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes68c28.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7127463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes36c28.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.37727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No74c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3233567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c54…aa45backed No74c27.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.043966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6740777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f8a…b076backed Yes40c25.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0520835.6%74 W · 134 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe536…41b6backed No65c25.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.78757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dbf…1b94backed No47c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa565…615abacked No57c24.87$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.782857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No74c22.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9822675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39b7…847cbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103938.5%15 W · 24 L-6.1wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-32.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c19.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.982,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf1…2f3cbacked No65c19.3$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+62.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4b7…91f8backed No80c19.11$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.827777.9%60 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick75cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc412…0736backed No77c18.78$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.29683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No72c18.14$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.081,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No76c17.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.311,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1efd…2cbdbacked No70c17.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.364955.1%27 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0057…b1c7backed No79c17.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.5814826.4%39 W · 109 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c16.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f2…c2a5backed No74c15.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.123275%24 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52f…0981backed No71c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.414671.2%104 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2097…8063backed No76c14.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.559668.8%66 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No75c14.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.616575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No76c13.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3318272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.