Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe335139368e0ffcd2e2163e0c43f27e93c5c522909ea80ccd057ccec132e5e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed No | 0c | 18,722$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 1,157$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 76c | 412.35$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 74c | 407.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 403.04$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.74 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 66c | 379.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.63 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 9c | 318.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.36 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 318.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 13c | 286.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.02 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 19c | 279.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.25 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 12c | 242.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.39 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 236.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 53c | 230.08$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.07 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 6c | 221$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked Yes | 10c | 217.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.48 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 9c | 193.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 13c | 189$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.82 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 10c | 165.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 9c | 146.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.9 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 12c | 130.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 25c | 129.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.58 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 12c | 128.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 78c | 127.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 12c | 120.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.86 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 76c | 96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 19c | 95.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 29c | 95.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 94.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.53 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 70c | 94.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 91.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…6278backed Yes | 14c | 88.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 20c | 84.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 82.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 66.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…9884backed Yes | 17c | 64.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 57.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 56.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 55.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…32c1backed Yes | 26c | 53.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 27c | 49.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 68c | 48.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 74c | 46.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 29c | 38.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 28.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 70c | 27.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 68c | 27.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…0053backed Yes | 47c | 21.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 64c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 72c | 15.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 14.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.