CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs BIG - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6c1e67b7dda0975d01aa0c0bced30ce2a82b04bb9ae35c74af126e80188c827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BIGof HOTU, BIG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,504 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23b4…7056backed HOTU | 40c | 1,089$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed BIG | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 467 | 49.7%232 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc25…4fa8backed BIG | 53c | 935.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.84 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e55…be6fbacked HOTU | 48c | 556.99$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.81 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed HOTU | 36c | 463$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.61 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked BIG | 60c | 303.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.33 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked HOTU | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked HOTU | 34c | 272.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…fd1bbacked BIG | 51c | 253.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.07 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed BIG | 60c | 240.33$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 696 | 35.3%246 W · 450 L | -49.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6742…fdf7backed HOTU | 34c | 202.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked BIG | 70c | 195.9$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked HOTU | 34c | 189.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked BIG | 47c | 144.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 124 | 69.4%86 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed HOTU | 38c | 120.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BIG | 56c | 119.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked HOTU | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 374 | 41.7%156 W · 218 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1f27backed HOTU | 47c | 107.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 544 | 39.7%216 W · 328 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed BIG | 65c | 99.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | +20.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed HOTU | 34c | 88.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…526dbacked BIG | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 224 | 44.6%100 W · 124 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked HOTU | 41c | 71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked BIG | 53c | 54.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed HOTU | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed BIG | 59c | 50.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed BIG | 63c | 49.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…b98fbacked BIG | 51c | 45.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…d6ccbacked HOTU | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed HOTU | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked BIG | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed HOTU | 32c | 35.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed BIG | 60c | 34.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…bd9bbacked HOTU | 40c | 32.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…9429backed BIG | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed BIG | 62c | 28.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked BIG | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…aaa2backed BIG | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed BIG | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs BIG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs BIG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship PlayoffsBIG won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs BIG - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.