Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6f4ac98d381453cdf954e35f425befea6321bfe59075426597924715fe8b231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 3c | 507.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 495.64$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed No | 11c | 349.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 306.54$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.32 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 5c | 297.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 32c | 248.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 248.25$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 29c | 246.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed Yes | 24c | 243.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed No | 75c | 230.73$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.53 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 198.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 185.09$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 34c | 155.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.39 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 48c | 149.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 9c | 134.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 22c | 128.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.35 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…aa11backed No | 52c | 127.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 116.62$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 22c | 109.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 106.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 15c | 102.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 102.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed No | 14c | 87.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 35c | 80.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 66.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 48c | 58.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 48.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 47.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 57c | 43.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…c4a5backed Yes | 40c | 39.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed No | 72c | 38.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 32.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 52c | 29.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…8292backed No | 75c | 29.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 27.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 25.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 61c | 20.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…8e23backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 65c | 18.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 72c | 15.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.