Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc701e39444b2fc113f05ad1e92aa72a4e86f475d68f664dba3f20bd4273bc470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed 1win | 9c | 28,242$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,590 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed 1win | 2c | 10,891$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.64 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked 1win | 2c | 3,328$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked 1win | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed 1win | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed 1win | 11c | 1,954$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.94 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730e…fca0backed 1win | 3c | 1,287$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 1win | 3c | 1,041$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 6c | 781.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked 1win | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed 1win | 14c | 486.53$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc8…5fd3backed 1win | 13c | 310$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed 1win | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed 1win | 11c | 299.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabba…02d0backed 1win | 12c | 238.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 7c | 224.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…706cbacked 1win | 11c | 193.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8832…1fc4backed 1win | 16c | 108.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked 1win | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed 1win | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2661…6c28backed 1win | 12c | 93.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win (BO5) - 1win Essence Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 3 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-2.5) vs 1win (+2.5)PARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.