Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92a6b698628804c53a851706d16cfcec0598cf26f24f7b1b90d253f2a8026911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed 1win | 21c | 37,035$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION | 78c | 10,750$8,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION | 79c | 7,000$5,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…ab65backed PARIVISION | 80c | 6,300$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked 1win | 4c | 4,368$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 1win | 8c | 3,757$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.81 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…f24abacked 1win | 2c | 3,506$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 503 | 47.1%237 W · 266 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed 1win | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd892…14d3backed 1win | 4c | 2,788$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed PARIVISION | 78c | 2,511$1,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.42 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked 1win | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed 1win | 21c | 1,509$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.98 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed PARIVISION | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed 1win | 24c | 999.98$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed 1win | 23c | 972.58$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.42 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed 1win | 21c | 895.88$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.53 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed PARIVISION | 77c | 855.91$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.86 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed PARIVISION | 77c | 814.99$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.45 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked 1win | 22c | 754.55$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1365…c82abacked PARIVISION | 80c | 673.59$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 614 | 56%344 W · 270 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed 1win | 25c | 565.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 14c | 554.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked 1win | 21c | 540.73$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.36 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PARIVISION | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed 1win | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…6b51backed 1win | 3c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 420 | 53.6%225 W · 195 L | +16.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d3…cdacbacked 1win | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed 1win | 6c | 365.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed 1win | 20c | 361.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed 1win | 20c | 358.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked PARIVISION | 80c | 320$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed 1win | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked PARIVISION | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 11c | 248.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 18c | 246.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed PARIVISION | 75c | 236.48$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 1win | 12c | 228.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked 1win | 10c | 225.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked PARIVISION | 79c | 222.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…22b9backed 1win | 6c | 215.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 537 | 58.8%316 W · 221 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…bd2abacked PARIVISION | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed PARIVISION | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…f45fbacked PARIVISION | 77c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50d6…f94abacked PARIVISION | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 56 | 82.1%46 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION | 75c | 85.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed PARIVISION | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…5d25backed PARIVISION | 75c | 79.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…cefdbacked PARIVISION | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…a552backed 1win | 26c | 61.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 182 | 53.3%97 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1478…80debacked PARIVISION | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1win | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…fbfabacked PARIVISION | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 302 | 55.3%167 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed PARIVISION | 80c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…c0d1backed PARIVISION | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed PARIVISION | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked PARIVISION | 75c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…bc49backed PARIVISION | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +7.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…0f50backed PARIVISION | 77c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ff…6465backed PARIVISION | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed PARIVISION | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win (BO5) - 1win Essence PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 3 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-2.5) vs 1win (+2.5)PARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.