Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-2.5) vs 1win (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcc6b8a11005f7894596ea0c236522fa014fd8108a5265ac24888432ef484f20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb517…434bbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 10,997$5,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,518.97 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…3934backed 1win | 50c | 9,235$4,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,617.45 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 51c | 3,034$1,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,542.87 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PARIVISION | 48c | 825.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.66 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed 1win | 53c | 800$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked PARIVISION | 47c | 625.66$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.66 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed 1win | 36c | 297.38$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed PARIVISION | 50c | 266.96$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed PARIVISION | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed PARIVISION | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed 1win | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked PARIVISION | 74c | 153.46$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…40e8backed PARIVISION | 50c | 148.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.12 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked PARIVISION | 71c | 111.9$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed 1win | 51c | 89.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed PARIVISION | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked PARIVISION | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed 1win | 20c | 55.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed PARIVISION | 50c | 55.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c09…b6ffbacked 1win | 59c | 51.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed PARIVISION | 51c | 50.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed PARIVISION | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed PARIVISION | 47c | 36.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed 1win | 58c | 35.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…5aaabacked 1win | 53c | 31.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked 1win | 53c | 31.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fac…b3b4backed PARIVISION | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed 1win | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d1…371bbacked 1win | 63c | 28.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-2.5) vs 1win (+2.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win (BO5) - 1win Essence PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs 1win - Game 3 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)PARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.