Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk tweet more August 13 than day before?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc72096cc20c9dd03841d68cb8e4f184c8fc0af5c5ab35a4ca46476fd8a3aee83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfaa…c3fdbacked Yes | 6c | 539.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked No | 74c | 316.82$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.16 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 4c | 304.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 78c | 174$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 8c | 165.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed No | 75c | 152.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 25c | 107.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 106.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 66c | 100.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…c260backed Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 125 | 23.2%29 W · 96 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 26c | 51.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde92…ad67backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…ee2ebacked No | 59c | 38.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc325…442ebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.