Mls · resolved market
Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-03-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc747f76d971471a50e4142f0b7330ebe12423c551a3751965941a3bfb8dd5602
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,076 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6146…152abacked Yes | 2c | 2,016$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 1,718$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 79c | 1,140$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 1,028$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.86 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 20c | 775$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0151…adf6backed Yes | 22c | 435.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Yes | 24c | 380.17$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 18c | 343.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 14c | 237$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 19c | 187.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…780dbacked No | 79c | 163.56$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…18abbacked No | 79c | 144.67$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…6a78backed No | 79c | 127.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 12c | 108.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 62c | 88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…48febacked No | 77c | 75.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 21c | 68.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 62.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 23c | 42.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 78c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 77cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-03-07?this page
- Will New York City FC vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?No won
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-03-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.