Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc74c0d3919e86ae6d59db7e70f4e580402edea06eceac36af393ede34e6fb6d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 70c | 1,280$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.27 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 1,167$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 19c | 630.76$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 20c | 610.85$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 20c | 449$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 12c | 348.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 25c | 271.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 5c | 259.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 17c | 212.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 17c | 149.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 146$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 31c | 129$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 115.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 18c | 89.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 17c | 87.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 19c | 84.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 82.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 21c | 80.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 22c | 75.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 54.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…af02backed Yes | 23c | 49.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 30c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 27.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 79c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 79c | 24.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 20.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 71c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.