Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x900dfddf899c796603119682a84644f7de934bc34192a2d7696c191001cb2e11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 539.29$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 56c | 370$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.77 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 364.7$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 37c | 335.37$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.17 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 63c | 317.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed Yes | 52c | 290$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 69c | 272$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.17 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 28c | 260.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 58c | 173.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 64c | 171.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 76c | 164.35$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 48c | 161.66$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 69c | 156.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 151.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 146$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 124.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 119.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 49c | 108.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 30c | 100.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 96.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 21c | 92.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 89.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 55c | 89.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 52c | 85.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 45c | 83.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 69c | 79.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 75c | 75.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 47c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…f244backed No | 18c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 19c | 69.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 25c | 63.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 47c | 60.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 23c | 54.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 52c | 49.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 24c | 44.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 49c | 43.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 41.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 56c | 35.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 37c | 31.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 53c | 31.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 78c | 29.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 48c | 28.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 48c | 26.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…1f33backed Yes | 57c | 24.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed Yes | 75c | 20.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…dfe9backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.