Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Hungary (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc75b9c41fafb73ee811c835c35721d18b2f7357c1da5315520eec0823bfa279c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Finlandof Hungary, Finland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Finland | 79c | 1,358$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.56 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Hungary | 21c | 1,243$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.83 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Finland | 71c | 368$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.72 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hungary | 20c | 255.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Hungary | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…ca25backed Hungary | 23c | 173.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Finland | 64c | 173.56$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Hungary | 20c | 145.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,114 | 49.4%550 W · 564 L | +57.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Hungary | 39c | 92.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 249 | 35.3%88 W · 161 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Finland | 71c | 79.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 631 | 51.5%325 W · 306 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed Hungary | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Finland | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 141 | 46.1%65 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe21c…3fd3backed Hungary | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked Hungary | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Hungary | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hungary (-2.5)this page
- Hungary vs. Finland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Finland (-1.5)Hungary won
- Spread: Hungary (-1.5)Finland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.