Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Hungary (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x494f5b4fb49676026a898c1887898640dd7f935193693bff7ef118baee10af42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Finlandof Hungary, Finland
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Finland | 54c | 4,988$2,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,304.05 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Hungary | 49c | 4,444$2,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,177.46 | 320 | 29.4%94 W · 226 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Hungary | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 894 | 43.4%388 W · 506 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Finland | 64c | 869.53$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.03 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf067…5c6dbacked Hungary | 36c | 779.86$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 339 | 15.9%54 W · 285 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Hungary | 35c | 427.73$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hungary | 48c | 401$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.48 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Finland | 65c | 203.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Finland | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Finland | 65c | 185.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.39 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Hungary | 49c | 179.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Finland | 63c | 167.9$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Finland | 22c | 164.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Finland | 65c | 158.17$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Finland | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Finland | 64c | 134.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Finland | 68c | 96.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Hungary | 34c | 78.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Hungary | 23c | 66.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Hungary | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…5222backed Hungary | 48c | 52.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 35.4%95 W · 173 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Finland | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 637 | 45.4%289 W · 348 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Hungary | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Finland | 61c | 45.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…2fcfbacked Finland | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…cba9backed Finland | 53c | 40.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Finland | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Finland | 50c | 35.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 187 | 64.2%120 W · 67 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Finland | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Finland | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 242 | 57.9%140 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Hungary | 40c | 28.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Finland | 78c | 27.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 831 | 53.3%443 W · 388 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Finland | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 271 | 54.6%148 W · 123 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Finland | 55c | 22.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Finland | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 281 | 62.6%176 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b4…96f3backed Finland | 51c | 21.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…9f3bbacked Finland | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Hungary | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 220 | 52.3%115 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Finland | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446d…a0b2backed Finland | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 72 | 69.4%50 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hungary (-1.5)this page
- Hungary vs. Finland: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 0.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 2.5Over won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 4.5Under won
- Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Finland (-1.5)Hungary won
- Spread: Hungary (-2.5)Finland won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.