College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oklahoma (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76679577bf2cb39a46217348ff4b21f8964632a44595b15d38bf2388cb9cbf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oklahomaof Oklahoma, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Oklahoma | 44c | 1,493$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.86 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Michigan | 56c | 1,485$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Oklahoma | 45c | 1,139$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.7 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Michigan | 55c | 1,014$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.7 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Michigan | 56c | 803.57$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Michigan | 56c | 550$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Oklahoma | 44c | 550$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan | 56c | 179.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Michigan | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Oklahoma | 40c | 133.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +8.9wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Oklahoma | 44c | 105.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Oklahoma | 42c | 78.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Michigan | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Oklahoma | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Michigan | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf925…efa6backed Oklahoma | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Michigan | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Michigan | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Oklahoma | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…fda4backed Michigan | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oklahoma (-6.5)this page
- Michigan vs. OklahomaOklahoma won
- Michigan vs. Oklahoma: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.