NFL · resolved market
Will Trump invite the Philadelphia Eagles to the White House?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc78f6de55f652dd01a947ac3306f1b23aaf1c54b9d91392e4e3e4b3bfb9c89f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed No | 8c | 1,508$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 11c | 650$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 411.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 6c | 354.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 16c | 315$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d1…c2acbacked No | 8c | 245.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 22c | 224.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…bccdbacked Yes | 66c | 137.64$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 80c | 125.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 9c | 119.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 78c | 82.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcda5…56a7backed No | 16c | 63.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 66c | 42.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…3484backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.