Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. AEK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc791a5264fa9078137ac39d9522587d99dd74797a2caa7bff472cc3df15de9fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 31c | 6,117$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 3,885$2,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.77 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 1,073$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.43 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 71c | 1,038$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.9 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 73c | 598.89$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…e0e1backed Yes | 27c | 448.11$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 73c | 407.52$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 249$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 73c | 199.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88d8…d41fbacked Yes | 28c | 165.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 25c | 159.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 152.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 17c | 62.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 74c | 49.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 32.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina vs. AEK end in a draw?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-27?No won
- Will AEK win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.