Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x527c4b4095c9d3bf15256cf87762dd6de1e8df9481f09a73cdae08c852e05408
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 53c | 25,000$13,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,250 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 47c | 10,021$4,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,282.58 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 47c | 7,817$3,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,143.26 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 70c | 6,219$4,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,881.26 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 3,129$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.97 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 70c | 2,765$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.01 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 32c | 2,719$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.63 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 29c | 2,703$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,905.87 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 29c | 1,966$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.71 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…e0e1backed Yes | 54c | 1,547$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 30c | 1,300$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 26c | 926$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.31 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 22c | 738.74$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.81 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 58c | 521.57$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.43 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f888backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 31c | 275.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 22c | 185.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.06 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 78c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 76c | 78.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 75c | 77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…fe7abacked No | 75c | 49.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 27c | 40.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 67c | 19.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina vs. AEK end in a draw?No won
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.