Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706d9578dd31ba10a5532f2873b07efc1e22b61a0b6106fc334175c3c55fee2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 50c | 25,000$12,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,500 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 50c | 22,199$11,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,099.51 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 54c | 11,087$5,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,137.86 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 56c | 4,500$2,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,520 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 51c | 4,209$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 62c | 3,973$2,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.88 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 48c | 3,934$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.9 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 56c | 2,981$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.05 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 61c | 2,695$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.04 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 2,144$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.86 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…52b4backed Yes | 48c | 2,078$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 51c | 1,990$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 46c | 1,772$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.89 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 50c | 1,694$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.54 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 45c | 1,608$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.52 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 24c | 1,516$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.45 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 50c | 1,102$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 653.88$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.73 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed No | 49c | 599.99$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed No | 50c | 380$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 49c | 356.08$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 44c | 322.05$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 78c | 288.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f888backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…fd45backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +5.2wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 54c | 199.13$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e3…6472backed Yes | 20c | 195$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 50c | 137.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 48c | 128$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…c8c2backed Yes | 53c | 113.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 48c | 89.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 52c | 85.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed No | 52c | 80.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 61.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 48c | 60.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 54c | 60.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 55c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 50c | 46.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 50c | 45.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 56c | 43.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2e…6200backed Yes | 57c | 42.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Yes | 49c | 39.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38b…a04dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4b…84c9backed No | 47c | 36.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 55c | 29.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39d9…ff3cbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…0e65backed Yes | 50c | 27.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…9779backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…4fc5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…95d4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…fe7abacked No | 67c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed Yes | 57c | 18.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will ACF Fiorentina vs. AEK end in a draw?No won
- Will AEK win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.