Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc79df5ec9612646629c3b10321eb50916be77cf145465adb0b4a4ed19b2bae97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 3,232$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.67 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 49c | 2,966$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.33 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 21c | 561$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 34c | 348.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 49c | 347.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 51c | 278.75$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 51c | 278.75$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 51c | 278.75$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.59 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 34c | 215.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 34c | 191.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 67c | 117.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 34c | 108.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 23c | 102.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 69c | 91.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 30c | 86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 84.63$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 70c | 76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked Under | 59c | 67.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 53.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Under | 58c | 41.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 41c | 28.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 76c | 17.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)New England Revolution won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.