Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9817aba08b9d2e0493338650125db61cf56e9526f646d0e0b872b75669370d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 9,138$4,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515.91 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 51c | 8,970$4,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,395.27 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 2,815$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.81 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 2,082$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.66 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 1,446$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.52 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fa…f6dfbacked Over | 59c | 1,200$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 80c | 1,083$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 39c | 780.51$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.16 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 644.12$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.03 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 627.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.71 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 568.76$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.21 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 65c | 499.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 48c | 498.29$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.03 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 78c | 457.5$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 26c | 452.28$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 52c | 331.07$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.74 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 75c | 319.99$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 18c | 285.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 79c | 252.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 79c | 251.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 25c | 249.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 19c | 249.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 202$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Over | 59c | 167.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 78c | 149.24$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 78c | 146.49$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 33c | 141.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 78c | 115.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 21c | 91.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Over | 51c | 83.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 72cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 66c | 63.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 71c | 61.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 34c | 52.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 51c | 40.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9368…8b01backed Over | 51c | 33.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)New England Revolution won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.