Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc91e0d7bdc91024523c0d0eb668fe5d739c885a09722aafe7b2960c6a3ccffab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 2,774$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.42 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 52c | 1,076$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.81 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 50c | 999.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.98 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 18c | 961.63$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.68 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 56c | 906$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.06 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 57c | 795.72$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.05 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 613.5$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.44 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 503.75$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.19 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 438.47$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 21c | 331.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.89 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 49c | 252.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 56c | 225.14$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Under | 45c | 222.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 203$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 52c | 190.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 49c | 148.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.22 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 44c | 144.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 56c | 133.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 130$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c30…d9e5backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 97.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Under | 36c | 94.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 21c | 92.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.61 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 49c | 81.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 81.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 52c | 61.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 64c | 58.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 64c | 52.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 45c | 51.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 48.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 43c | 46.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 45c | 45.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 34c | 38.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 70c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 48c | 30.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…e8fbbacked Under | 69c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…053bbacked Over | 66c | 27.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 57c | 24.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 45c | 23.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 45c | 23.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…9ef0backed Under | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- New England Revolution vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-2.5)New England Revolution won
- Spread: New England Revolution (-2.5)New England Revolution won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.