Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7aa880dad6eb898c665eb695e4acbc368c5c8b9421dab82c173a98dd8bd54f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 427.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 174.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 40c | 155.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 150.39$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 60c | 145.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 70c | 145.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 138.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.23 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 40c | 134.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.81 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 123.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 64c | 119.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 55c | 101.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 72c | 83.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…ab28backed No | 22c | 80.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 75.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 49c | 71.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 43c | 69.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 64.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 35c | 61.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 47c | 60.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 20c | 59.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 49.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 39c | 41.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 46c | 41.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 39c | 40.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc7…b45abacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 53c | 39.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked Yes | 53c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 58c | 35.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 32c | 32.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 58c | 31.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 43c | 30.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…c965backed Yes | 43c | 27.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc8…6d81backed Yes | 73c | 26.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 55c | 25.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 61c | 21.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 20.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 66c | 19.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 69c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 15.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.