WNBA · resolved market
Mercury vs Lynx
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7b11049f12780a30ec578ee0fbd6f780a92bc8174d24e30609df9ad8851f5b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynxof Mercury, Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Mercury | 4c | 11,427$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.11 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 18c | 3,600$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.52 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Mercury | 9c | 1,593$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.67 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Mercury | 18c | 1,506$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.02 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked Mercury | 19c | 1,370$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Mercury | 13c | 651.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 20c | 500.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Mercury | 17c | 500$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Mercury | 19c | 478$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Mercury | 19c | 315$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mercury | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lynx | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…c5c1backed Mercury | 19c | 270$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Mercury | 19c | 257$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2873…ad0abacked Mercury | 10c | 218.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Mercury | 19c | 118.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…1467backed Mercury | 19c | 105.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Mercury | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Lynx | 77c | 71.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Lynx | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.