Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7dea7a9190273a647c50f1ae4e5241cf8bb9fd361c73977350e6cf8a898e4a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 64c | 40,404$25,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,478.93 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 14,181$5,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,105.12 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over | 36c | 6,827$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 35c | 2,510$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.55 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 34c | 2,327$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.87 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 36c | 1,455$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.69 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 35c | 1,104$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.4 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 35c | 961$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.12 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 37c | 952.65$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.28 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 35c | 900$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 37c | 670$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.9 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 37c | 665.31$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.16 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 38c | 490.14$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 35c | 456$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 35c | 422.72$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 37c | 383.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 35c | 357$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 35c | 357$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 35c | 357$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 37c | 300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 35c | 288$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 260.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb2…5c04backed Over | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 36c | 182$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Over | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Over | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 37c | 127.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 37c | 119.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 35c | 114$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 36c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…2cc5backed Over | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Over | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 36c | 78.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…c118backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…9ac2backed Over | 36c | 35.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Over | 39c | 30.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…aa9fbacked Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: FC Milsami Orhei O/U 2.5Under won
- FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: FK Velež Mostar O/U 1.5Under won
- FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Velež Mostar vs. FC Milsami Orhei: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Milsami Orhei (-1.5)FK Velež Mostar won
- Spread: FK Velež Mostar (-1.5)FC Milsami Orhei won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.