Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e7760d0de65cdfa983266cf9106ab403d5739628ce16d18ffb6887b779ab54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 752.68$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.73 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked No | 55c | 725.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.13 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 28c | 472.42$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed No | 47c | 437.25$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.34 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 31c | 318.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 75c | 300$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 74c | 270.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 4c | 226.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 72c | 209.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 199.47$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf685…5ec9backed No | 30c | 168.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.97 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 64c | 162.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 143.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 139.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.35 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 77c | 129.55$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 58c | 129.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 58c | 128.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…8206backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…077fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…a12fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b544backed Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 41c | 95.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 39c | 89.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 68c | 88.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 28c | 82.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 74c | 76.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 67c | 73.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 34c | 69.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 67c | 66.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 65.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 62.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 29c | 58.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee5…b493backed No | 37c | 57.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 30c | 54.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 37c | 51.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 73c | 51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 23c | 45.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 36c | 37.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 74c | 35.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 67c | 33.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 33.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…0124backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 72c | 24.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 72c | 15.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…105fbacked Yes | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.