MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc80f611694d1a4d9cdd65a469b4954ba02004a2d9ae8783468660d8f588f3c43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 4,867$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.34 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 1,842$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.41 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 1,244$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.99 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 826.64$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.72 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 50c | 521.89$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.97 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 478$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.02 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 450$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 270.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.54 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 264.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…0e56backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 244$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 208 | 48.6%101 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 209.47$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 197.61$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 112.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 107.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 83.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Boston Red Sox | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 44c | 58.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 55.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 55.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 51c | 42.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 32.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 28.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 28.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 24.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.