MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2eed2020fa607306823ffb49deaa725e4be23d91c4bd9a67a7c740b5ccdab54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 2,581$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.22 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 47c | 2,126$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.63 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 49c | 2,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.06 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 1,662$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 45c | 1,412$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.94 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 39c | 1,359$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.89 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 61c | 959.73$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.44 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 56c | 420.39$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.84 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Over | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 229 | 48%110 W · 119 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 39c | 380$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 56c | 333.57$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.77 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 61c | 300.64$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 298.15$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 41c | 163.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 149$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 124.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 61c | 120.83$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 58c | 107$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 41c | 104.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 39c | 75.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Under | 58c | 61.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 48.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 43c | 42.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 48c | 42.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 39c | 38.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 60c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Over | 58c | 34.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 33.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 39c | 33.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 61c | 25.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…3806backed Under | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Over | 58c | 22.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 63c | 20.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Over | 56c | 20.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Over | 62c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 274 | 54.4%149 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.